Tuesday, January 10, 2012

On Frozen Water - NHL 12 Simulation

*Post courtesy Dan Hershberg*

Gentlemen, hockey addicts, esteemed members of OFW,

There comes a time in a man's life when he is overtaken by a morbid curiosity, a sensibility that forces him to make decisions that would otherwise seem inane, ludicrous and foolhardy. These decisions are often influenced by alcohol or boredom; in this case, it was a crippling tonic with just the right amount of each. Regardless of the confluence of factors that led me to this point, I arrived here confidently--if not tipsy--and I am here to share with you the results of my actions.

I simulated our Fantasy Hockey League on NHL 12. And it. Was. Awesome.

Part One: Logistics
While not quite as awesome as this, the logistics of the simulation were a crucial first step in turning this boozy dream into a magical reality. NHL 12 is insanely dope, but despite the ability to create custom teams or start a Fantasy Draft, it won't allow for a 12-team league to compete in a full season. After a bit of tinkering, the best option was to create a 16-team tournament (it was either 8 or 16 teams) and play out the competition in round robin format. Each team was created and placed in an 8-team pool with 5 other OFW teams and two pushovers. To avoid any crossover between rosters and ensure minimal interference, Ukraine, France, Italy and Kazakhstan were selected to join the league. 

Each team would play their fellow pool members 7 times (creating a 49-game season) before moving onto the playoffs. There was no option for cross-pool play during the tournament, so the Eastern European Unibrow brawl between Ukraine and Kazakhstan would have to be put on hold. Sorry, this guy. After round robin play, all 16 teams would be reseeded and face off in best of 7 series' until a winner was determined. 

Part Two: Input
The next minor hurdles centered around roster creation and naming, as well as finding something to eat. Since there is no custom option for team names, I opted to keep first and last initials of teams in tact and use similar names when possible. Below you'll see the pools and team names:

Pool A
Milwaukee Misfits (Josh O)
Landshut Alpines (K Stew)
St. Paul Blades (Mike B)
La Chaux De Fonds Magicians (Kyle) 
Moose Jaw Blizzards (Deaver)
Weisswasser Renegades (Kataja)
Ukraine
France

Pool B
St. Paul Stingers (Paul) 
Brampton Barracudas (Serratore)
Albany Fourth Liners (Aaron)
Drummondville Stallions (Justin)
Regina Chiefs (Josh G)
Peterborough Falcons (Hersh)
Italy
Kazakhstan

Some talking points from these team names:

  1. La Chaux De Fonds Magicians sounds like a cheap Montreal strip club owned by Gob Bluth and is without question the best name in the group
  2. Two St. Paul teams lead to one fierce, fake rivalry. BLADES! STINGERS! 
  3. I got confused during my after-drink drink and flipped the first and last initials of some teams, i.e., Antti Laaksotive became Landshut Alpines. 
Once all the team names were in order, the next matter of business was to fill in the rosters. A complete roster needed 23 players and since our league only carries up to 22 players with both IR slots filled, I had to get a bit creative with the final spot(s) for certain teams. I settled on selecting AHL'ers from whichever affiliate that member actually roots for. So the Landshut Alpines were filled in with Stu Bickell and Wade Redden. The latter move put him $25 million over the cap and dropped attendance in Landshut Arena by 30%. Along those lines, only one team was cap compliant: the Regina Chiefs, coming in with $4 million to spend at the deadline. However, fake-Josh opted to use the $4 million on re-entry waiver selections. The rosters also allowed for only 4 goalies, so teams with 5 had their lowest rated player dropped and filled with an AHL replacement.
It was also curious to see how NHL 12 rated our completed teams. Benji's St. Paul Blades came in at a staggering 99, largely on the strength of a healthy Sidney Crosby and Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes. Kataja's Weisswasser Renegades weren't far behind, rated at 97. But what's truly impressive in the game is its realism and ability to rate owners: Stewart's Landshut Alpines brought up the rear at 87 overall, lending credence to the overwhelming belief his flukey first-place position won't last long.

Part Three: Regular Season/Pool Play
With the administrative work done, the time finally came to what nobody was waiting for: game time. 

The Weisswasser Renegades (Kataja) and Brampton Barracudas (Jim) went wire to wire in the pole position, earning a cake-walk matchup in the first round of the playoffs against one of the international squads. Deaver's Moose Jaw Blizzards took 2nd place in Pool A, but Pool B went back and forth due to an epic collapse by Albany (Aaron), which saw them fall from 2nd place all the way to 6th in the last 2 weeks of the season. A loss to Italy and a home ice tie with the Kazakhs will do that to you. Henrik Zetterberg (70 points in 49 games) and Alexander Ovechkin (35 goals in 49 games) led the scoring race, while Lundqvist paced the goalies with a 26-8 record, along with a 1.87 GAA. Life wasn't as pretty for the Nuge, as the rookie played in only 24 games for the Barracudas, scoring 1 goal and 2 assists. 

But where the the game didn't pick up on the realism of the likely Calder winner, it was spot on with some other simulations. France's Cristobal Huet had a rough tourney, finishing up with a 2-38 record, along with a 5.68 GAA and .851 SV PCT. Rumor had it that the French coach, Jean-Pierre Chirac-Bealiveau La Toulouse, attempted to bury him in the AHL but the waiver system wouldn't allow it (Josh tried to pick him up too, then drop him). Italy also found itself at the bottom of the table, largely due to an 0-26 record away from Il Colloseo and a staggering 28 SHG allowed. In 49 games. Bravissimo on the backchecking boys. 

Part Four: The Postseason
2 months in 5 minutes. Thankfully, we can't simulate the actual postseason. 

Round 1
The top seed, Kataja's Weisswasser easily handled Italy, sweeping a 4-game series and stealing Mario Batali's crocs in the process.
Justin's 2nd seeded Stallions also swept aside the Ukrainians in 4 games, despite Nik Antropov's best efforts.
3rd seeded La Chaux De Fonds (Kyle) took out the 6th seed Fourth Liners (Aaron) in 6 games, capping a dramatic fall from grace.
The first "upset" of the first round saw the 5th seeded Milwaukee Misfits (Ouellette) knock off 4th seeded Falcons (Me. NO!) in 6 games. 

On the other side of the bracket, the top two seeds also advanced with sweeps over international competition, as Jim's Brampton took down France (c'est la vie Cristobal) and Deaver's Moose Jaw snowed out the Kazakhs. 
The only 7-game series of the first round, Josh's Chiefs came back from a 3-1 deficit against K Stew's Alpines, after Landshut dropped his top 4 leading scorers and traded his best prospects for Calgary Flames.
As luck would have it, both St. Paul teams matched up, but the heated rivalry was decidedly one-sided as Benji's Blades took out the brooms against their inner-city neighbors, Paul's Stingers. 

Round 2Kataja's Weisswasser must have thought Ouellette was Huet's backup, as he swept the Misfits like they were Parisians. 4-0 and onto the Conference Finals.
Justin's Stallions continued their remarkable rise from real-life doormat to video-game power player, as they outlasted Kyle's Magicians in a dramatic 7-game series that saw teams alternate wins from start to finish.
The top-seeded Barracudas (Jim) saw their season end at the hands of Benji's Blades in a 5-game series.
Josh's Chiefs reminded everyone that they were good last year in crunch time as well, sweeping aside Deaver's Blizzards with relative ease. 4-0, wow.

Round 3Shit got crazy, yo.

In one Conference Final, Kataja's Weisswasser took on Justin's Stallions. 1 versus 2 promised to be a barn burner...but Drummondville and their Stallions won the first 3 games on their way to a 4-1 win and a trip to the OFW Cup. 
Across the way, Regina (Josh) faced off against St. Paul (Benji). The series saw the road team win every game until Game 7, when Josh's Regina (haha, sounds like Josh's vagina) flipped the script and booked a matchup with Drummondville in the final.

OFW CupJust like we predicted (!), 2 of the bottom 3 teams in our actual league battled it out in the finals. But that's what happened and it was only appropriate that the Finals in the OFW Cup came down to a 7-game series. In a stunning David vs. Goliath battle (ironic, since both guys top out at 5'6"), Justin's Drummondville Stallions defeated the defending champion, Josh's Regina Chiefs 4-3. Game 7 was one for the ages, a 1-0 shutout win for the Cam Ward-led Stallions. 

Part Five: Re-simulation
For shits and giggles, I simulated the same league in its entirety 9 more times to see if Justin's win was a fluke or a deserving title.
Attempt 2: Justin swept Aaron 4-0
Attempt 3: Kataja beat Benji 4-1
Attempt 4: Kataja beat Deaver 4-2
Attempt 5: Benji beat Kataja 4-3
Attempt 6: Kataja beat Benji 4-2
Attempt 7: Kataja beat Benji 4-3
Attempt 8: Benji beat Kyle 4-3
Attempt 9: Ouellette beat Jim 4-2
Attempt 10: Kataja beat Benji 4-3

So while Justin won the first two attempts, it appears the highest rated teams got the most love, as Kataja's Weisswassser Renegades won 5 out of 10 championships. 

Enjoy these results fellas, because we all know I'm not losing the real thing.

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